The Jaguars had a 32% chance to make the playoffs heading into their bye last week according to this model from the NY Times. Now, heading into their week 11 game vs the Colts, Jacksonville has just a 17% chance to make the playoffs.
Playing with a few basic scenario's on the model: with a Jags win over Indy this week, the chance gets boosted to 26%. Parley that with a Ravens win over the Texans and the number only goes up to 27% but the chance to host a game on wildcard weekend goes up from 7% to 10%, so the model is thinking the Ravens could be a wildcard team in that calculation. I would disagree with that notion personally, but interesting to note nonetheless. Also, running the scenario will yield different results, these are just the numbers from one set of simulations.
The Jaguars winning the two upcoming games vs the Colts and Titans boosted their chances to 46%. Winning all three remaining Division games put them at a safe 70%. And adding any victory from the remaining 4 games put them over 80%.
Bottom Line: If the Jags take care of business, they will get in.