Photo: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images
The Miami Heat (37-29) are 6.5-point favorites as they attempt to continue a six-game home winning streak when they take on the Milwaukee Bucks (27-37) on Thursday, March 12, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The contest airs at 7:30 p.m. ET on FDSSUN, FDSWI, and WMLW.
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Heat vs. Bucks Predictions for Thursday
Our computer projections model for this encounter predicts a final result of Heat 122, Bucks 110.
- Moneyline Pick: Heat (-256)
- Total Pick: Under 234.5 (computer predicts 232.2 points)
- Pick ATS: Heat (-6.5)
Recent Heat vs. Bucks Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/24/2026 | Heat | -6.5 | 228.5 | -225 | +185 | 128-117 MIL |
| 11/26/2025 | Heat | -10.5 | 237 | -481 | +367 | 106-103 MIA |
| 4/5/2025 | Heat | -1.5 | 209.5 | -116 | -103 | 121-115 MIL |
| 2/23/2025 | Bucks | -4.5 | 221 | -178 | +148 | 120-113 MIL |
| 1/23/2025 | Bucks | -6 | 225.5 | -246 | +200 | 125-96 MIL |
| 11/26/2024 | Heat | -5.5 | 222.5 | -229 | +189 | 106-103 MIL |
Heat 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Miami has a 40-25-1 record against the spread this season.
- In games this season they were favored by 6.5 points or more, the Heat have a 12-5 record against the spread.
- Miami's games have gone over the point total in 34 out of 64 opportunities (53.1%).
- This season, the Heat have won 21 out of the 33 games, or 63.6%, in which they've been favored.
- Miami has a record of 14-1, a 93.3% win rate, when it's favored by -256 or more by sportsbooks this season.
Bucks 2025-26 Betting Trends
- So far this season, Milwaukee has compiled a 28-36-0 record against the spread.
- In games they have played as at least 6.5-point underdogs this season, the Bucks are 8-9 against the spread.
- Milwaukee has hit the over in 28 of its 64 games with a set total (43.8%).
- The Bucks have won 40% of the games this season they were the underdog on the moneyline (16-24).
- Milwaukee has gone 3-11 in games it has played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +209 or longer (21.4%).
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Heat vs. Bucks Injury Report
Heat
Heat:
Kel'el Ware: Questionable (Shoulder),
Andrew Wiggins: Out (Toe),
Tyler Herro: Questionable (Quadricep),
Nikola Jovic: Out (Back),
Norman Powell: Out (Groin)
Bucks
Bucks:
Kevin Porter Jr.: Questionable (Knee),
Bobby Portis: Questionable (Back),
Jericho Sims: Questionable (Knee)
Heat vs. Bucks Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FDSSUN, FDSWI, and WMLW
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Arena: Kaseya Center
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